TL;DR
The Bureau of Meteorology predicts one of Australia's warmest winters on record, potentially impacting the upcoming ski season. With temperatures expected to be 1.5°C above average, ski resorts may face challenges in maintaining snow cover.
Australia is forecast for another warm winter which will threaten the snow season.
The Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) has released its seasonal outlook, forecasting one of Australia's warmest winters on record. This prediction comes after two consecutive years of above-average temperatures, raising concerns about the impact on the upcoming ski season. Since August last year, Australia has experienced mean temperatures 2.1°C above the 1961-1990 baseline average, equivalent to about 2.5°C above pre-industrial levels.
The BOM's model indicates that mean temperatures across Australia could be approximately 1.5°C above the 1961-1990 baseline this winter. If realised, this would rank among the top three warmest winters on record, following the anomalies of +1.54°C in 2023 and +1.49°C in 2024. The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) supports this outlook, predicting temperatures 0.5°C to 1°C above the 1993-2016 average for about two-thirds of the country.
These warm conditions pose a significant challenge for Australian ski resorts. For every 1°C increase in temperature, the snowline rises by 100 to 150 metres. Unlike higher alpine regions globally, Australia's modest mountains and latitude result in marginal below-freezing temperatures even on the coldest days. This makes the country's ski areas particularly vulnerable to warming trends.
