TL;DR
Despite predictions of a warmer winter, many parts of Australia experienced a notably cold June. This article examines the temperature trends and their implications for the rest of the winter season.
Cold June Challenges Australia's Winter Forecast
June 2025 brought unexpectedly cold temperatures to much of Australia, particularly in the eastern states. This chilly start to winter caught many by surprise, given earlier predictions of warmer-than-average conditions. The cold snap prompted questions about the accuracy of seasonal forecasts and what Australians can expect for the remainder of winter.
Temperature data from the Bureau of Meteorology showed that most of the country experienced below-average minimum temperatures in June. New South Wales recorded its coldest June in nearly 20 years, while Queensland saw its coldest June minimums in over a decade. Several locations reported record-breaking cold, including Goulburn in NSW, which recorded -10°C on June 21, colder than parts of Antarctica on the same day.
The cold mornings were largely attributed to a series of cold fronts passing through southern and south-eastern Australia, followed by high-pressure systems that created clear skies and light winds. These conditions allowed heat to escape overnight, resulting in frigid temperatures by dawn.
Despite the cold start, climatologists note that June's temperatures were not exceptionally low by historical standards. Australia's average temperature has warmed by more than 1.5°C since 1910, with most of this change occurring since the 1950s. This long-term warming trend means that all seasons are getting warmer on average, and truly cold winters are becoming less common.The Bureau of Meteorology's initial winter outlook had strongly favoured warm days and nights for June across almost the entire country. While this forecast proved accurate for maximum temperatures, which were largely warmer than average, it did not anticipate the cold overnight temperatures that occurred.
