Japan's Winter Ski Forecast: Is La Niña Returning To Japan This Season?

Winter Forecast for Ski Resorts in Japan: JMA Predicting Strong Snowfall The Japan Meteorological Association (JMA) has released its winter forecast, bringing great news for skiers as the season approaches. Unlike last year, which saw below-average snowfall and higher temperatures due to El Niño, this season's outlook looks promising. JMA predicts a 60% chance of La Niña developing, a phenomenon known for colder temperatures and increased snowfall. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) also supports this prediction with a 71% likelihood.

Riding at Kiroro under the gondola. Credit: SnowStash Snowfall ExpectationsJMA forecasts a 40% chance of above-average snowfall across Japan this winter, with equal chances of near-normal and below-normal levels. This is encouraging, especially when looking back at previous La Niña seasons, like 2021-22, which started with a similar forecast but ended with record snowfall. For example, resorts in the Myoko region received over 16 meters of snow during that time.Historically, Myoko averages 13.8 meters of snow during La Niña seasons, compared to 12.4 meters in other years. Nozawa Onsen shows similar trends, averaging nearly 9 meters during La Niña years versus 7.2 meters otherwise. Hokkaido resorts, like Niseko, also thrive in these conditions, boasting up to 15 meters of snowfall in 2021-22. Temperature TrendsFor temperatures, JMA predicts a 40% chance that average temperatures in Hokkaido and Tohoku will remain normal. However, there’s a lower chance (30%) for above- or below-normal temperatures. Hokkaido experiences colder January averages, with resorts like Furano seeing lows around -12°C.In contrast, the Hokuriku region, home to popular resorts like Hakuba Valley, has a 40% chance of below-average temperatures, promising excellent snow quality and a longer ski season. Last year was unusually warm, with many resorts temporarily closing due to unfavourable conditions.After one of the hottest winters on record last year due to El Niño, the latest JMA forecast brings hope for a colder and snowier 2024-25 ski season. With La Niña likely to return, skiers can expect improved conditions across Japan's major ski regions, from Nagano to Hokkaido. Plus, with the yen at a low, it’s a great time to plan a ski trip to Japan!