Perisher leads all resorts with 43.3cm forecast, the bulk of it arriving mid-to-late this week. Thredbo sits at 35.6cm. Falls Creek is forecast to receive 16.9cm, with Charlotte Pass at 8cm and Hotham at 6.5cm. Selwyn, Mt Baw Baw, and Mt Buller are in lower single digits - 2.9cm, 1.5cm, and 1.3cm respectively - but all will benefit from the temperature drop enabling snowmaking operations.
The NSW resorts are carrying this forecast, which makes sense given their higher elevation. Perisher's upper mountain sits above 2,000 metres and Thredbo's summit terrain is similarly exposed to cold air masses tracking from the southwest. Falls Creek, sitting at the top end of the Victorian fields, is picking up a reasonable natural top-up. The lower-elevation Victorian resorts - Buller, Hotham, Baw Baw - will be working their snowmaking systems hard once overnight temperatures drop below freezing.
Overnight temperatures have been dropping to -2 to -3°C at the higher slopes, allowing snowmaking systems to fire up ahead of opening weekend. Mt Buller and Thredbo have both invested in all-weather snowmaking technology capable of producing snow even during marginal temperatures, and both have been stockpiling snow reserves ahead of opening day.
For the Victorian resorts, this is broadly how every season starts - the natural snowfall fills in through July and August, and the opening weekend snowpack is built as much in the snowmaking sheds as in the sky. The cold temperatures tracking in from the start of June are arguably more valuable than the natural accumulations, because they extend the snowmaking window into the days immediately before lifts start spinning.
Opening Weekend Dates
Most resorts are scheduled to open on Kings Birthday long weekend beginning 6 June 2026. Perisher is running its PEAK Festival across the full four days from 5 to 8 June - live music across multiple stages in the village alongside the season opener. Thredbo opens Saturday 6 June. Mt Buller, Mt Hotham, and Mt Baw Baw are all targeting 6 June.
The public holiday falls on Monday 8 June in NSW, Victoria, the ACT, South Australia, Tasmania, and the Northern Territory.
The Broader Season Outlook
It would be dishonest not to mention the bigger picture. Mountainwatch's Grasshopper has flagged a potential shift toward El Niño conditions for 2026, with a neutral-to-El Niño ENSO phase combined with a neutral-to-positive IOD - a combination that generally limits the intensity of snow-bearing systems tracking across the Alps. SnowBrains' seasonal outlook calls for slightly below-average natural snowfall overall, with the best skiing likely in the middle of the season and the strongest performance on the highest terrain in the Snowy Mountains and Mt Hotham.
None of that changes what's in front of us right now. The natural snow event arriving this week is genuinely timed well, the snowmaking windows are opening up, and the resorts will be ready. Whether it builds into a deep winter from here depends on what July and August deliver - but the 2026 season is starting in better shape than the forecast suggested a few weeks ago.
