Mammoth Goes First
Mammoth has scheduled its opening for Friday 13 November, with lifts due to start turning at 8:30 am. Opening day traditionally centres on Broadway Express at Main Lodge, with a first-chair celebration and a banner breakthrough. Its snowmaking around Main Lodge and its high elevation have historically made it one of the state's most reliable early openers.
The mountain has already had a taste of winter. A light dusting fell at McCoy Station on Monday 28 September, though it had melted by Tuesday morning.
Mammoth is well aware how fast a date can change. Last year it first aimed for 14 November, then moved to 15 November to chase a forecast storm. High snow lines during the region's first significant storm hurt conditions, and lifts did not start turning until 20 November. The 2025-26 season ended on 7 June after 199 days and 297 inches of snow, short of the resort's average of about 400 inches.
The Tahoe Resorts
Heavenly and Northstar are both targeting 20 November. Palisades Tahoe has put Wednesday 25 November on its calendar. Sugar Bowl is targeting Friday 27 November, and Kirkwood is aiming for 4 December. These are the dates published as of mid-September, and the resorts will confirm closer to the day depending on snowmaking and natural snow.
June Mountain, in the Eastern Sierra, is reported to be opening on 19 December.
Who Is Still Waiting
Big Bear, Sierra at Tahoe, China Peak, Dodge Ridge and Mt Shasta Ski Park are among the areas still waiting on weather and snowmaking before they announce a date. Bear Valley, Boreal, Homewood, Mountain High and Mt Baldy also had no confirmed day at the time of writing. Some third-party sites publish projected dates for these areas, but in many cases they are based on historical opening patterns rather than anything the resorts have said, so treat them with caution.
Why the Forecast Has Everyone Optimistic
California is one of the big winners in this year's forecasts. A super El Niño is developing in the Pacific, and OpenSnow says every ski region in the state, including Tahoe, is favoured for above-average snowfall. The signal is strongest in the Central Sierra, which takes in Mammoth and China Peak. Southern California resorts such as Mountain High and Snow Summit also tend to see more snow in strong El Niño winters than in neutral or La Niña years. NOAA's September outlook puts the chance of above-normal precipitation for coastal California at better than 50 per cent through winter and spring.
There are caveats. Strong El Niño years tend to be warmer, with an active subtropical jet stream, according to OpenSnow, and the Central Sierra Snow Lab has pointed out that a super El Niño does not guarantee more snow for the state's resorts. After the last winter, that is worth remembering.
